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TOPIC: Re:Lehman
#1643
princessredtights (User)
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Lehman 3 Months, 3 Weeks ago  
Karl -

I look forward to hearing your opinion on this weekend's events ...
 
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#1647
khuber (Admin)
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Re:Lehman 3 Months, 3 Weeks ago  
I think I have sent a number of pertinent emails and hope you received them.

Specifically, as to Lehman, I think Paulson and crew had their hands full and simply could not put together more than one deal. Merrill got priority. Bank of America was considered as the garbage can for both, but one was plenty to handle. It turns out that the $40 billion cost of the Bear Stearns deal with JP Morgan has ballooned to $601 billion, so that garbage can is getting full. Also, they are saving JP Morgan for WaMu.

I think they postponed WaMu because the FDIC needs to obtain new Congressional funding before it can handle an insolvency that large.

There also is the suggestion that BIS, the Bank of International Settlements, often called the Central Banker to Central Banks, put the US into receivership on September 15, telling Paulson that the effect of putting F&F on the Government's books so impairs our country's credit standing that no more bailouts are authorized. One report focusing on Paulson's body language rather than his words, states he acted like a castigated employee, not the Secretary of the Treasury for the USA.

Lehman is counter party to various credit derivatives and swaps world wide. These now become worthless, endangering banks and institutions around the world. Japan has a huge problem. Germany reports that its entire banking system in in jeopardy. AIG's need for an instant loan ballooned from 40 to 75 billion in a single day.

I am afraid that the magnitude of this cascade exceeds the capacity of our government to solve the problem. Indeed, the actual problem is something like 650 trillion of toxic paper spread worldwide. The entire world annual GDP is supposed to be about 60 trillion of which the US contribution is 13. New York is the fraud capital of the world, with Washington a close second.

Loans for liquidity do not solve an insolvency crisis. That requires capital. Americans have no savings.

In theory this means that the Chinese and the Japanese and the Arabs and the Russians are the only ones in a position to put in capital and take control of the entire financial system in the US.

The problem there is that they too hold much of their savings in US Treasury bonds.

What is coming, probably, is a gold backed Ruble and a gold backed Dinar. At that point, since no one will want to exchange gold for US Treasuries the US Treasuries and the Dollar go to zero, the US becomes a third world colony of a consortium of creditors and we go into liquidation. That is what a sovereign default might look like. Whatever assets can be stripped, including forests, get sent to our creditors to pay our bills. The USA as we have known it ceases to exist. This line of thought also includes the idea that our weapons industry, which is about money and not about patriotism, gets bought up by the Russians and the Chinese.

The scoundrels in New York go to work for the creditors as liquidation managers. The US military and the US mercenaries become enforcers working for the creditors.

Pretty wild. Not in any way what we are looking forward to.

.
 
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Last Edit: 2008/09/16 17:05 By khuber.
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#1649
princessredtights (User)
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Re:Lehman 3 Months, 2 Weeks ago  
Karl -

I did receive the emails - thanks - I appreciate, respect and value your insight. I just wish you had a more optimistic view of things! When I start looking at the sheer vastness and magnitude of the numbers, I get nauseous.


Thanks for sharing It looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride!
 
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